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Tom Wojcik’s report, based on figures through Sept. 26, 2026, traces how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is feeding into fuel prices, food production and Europe’s winter energy outlook. It cites sharp shipping-cost increases and fuel shortages at some French stations, while warning that harvest and food-security effects may emerge later. The scale and duration of those effects remain uncertain.
Tom Wojcik’s report on Sept. 26 links the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to higher fuel costs, pressure on food production and uncertainty over winter heating, including in Poland. The account describes several effects already visible in shipping markets and fuel supply, while warning that harvest damage may take longer to appear.
US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February, Wojcik writes, and Iran has kept the strait closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. Tanker traffic has fallen by more than 90 percent. The report says the International Energy Agency describes the disruption as the largest oil-supply disruption in market history. That characterization is attributed to the agency, not independently assessed in the account.
Oil prices rose after a fragile ceasefire that had brought them back to pre-war levels broke down. Brent crude approached $97 a barrel in early September, reached about $105 by mid-month and touched $108 on Sept. 24, according to the report. On Sept. 22, Iran gave Washington a written proposal for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade. Washington rejected it, Wojcik reports.
Some market participants have benefited from the disruption. The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF rose more than 600 percent in the first two months of the war and was up more than 2,300 percent for 2026 by early September, the report says. The fund’s manager warned that rates could fall if the strait reopens. Separately, the report cites Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, US diesel prices above $6 a gallon on Sept. 10, and fuel shortages at some French stations. It says 15 percent of French stations were out of petrol or diesel on Sept. 20, while the government ruled out a national shortage.
How the Closure Reaches Households
The report’s central point is that a shipping disruption can travel through systems people rely on every day. Higher fuel costs affect drivers and freight; freight moves food, and the strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, according to the account. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that shortages could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.
Wojcik also points to Europe’s energy exposure as winter approaches. Poland relies on coal and imported gas, he writes, while a gas cavern in Bavaria is described as only half full. The report does not provide a complete regional inventory or quantify the likely impact on household bills. It does show why energy supply, agricultural inputs and transport costs are connected in the current crisis.
Existing food insecurity adds to the stakes. The report says 2025 was the first year in the Global Report on Food Crises with two confirmed famines, in Gaza and Sudan, and that food-assistance funding fell an estimated 59 percent from 2022 to 2025. The World Food Programme estimates that sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity. These are attributed figures and projections, not confirmed outcomes of the Hormuz closure.
From Fuel Shock to Crop Risk
Wojcik frames the crisis from Poland, which borders Ukraine and, he writes, heats itself with coal and imported gas while financing arms purchases with borrowed money. His account argues that governments and businesses have allowed stocks and other buffers to shrink while relying on suppliers and transport routes that work only while they remain available. That is his interpretation of the events.
The report describes a sequence of pressures. A ceasefire briefly eased oil prices before breaking down; the subsequent closure disrupted tanker traffic. Shipping was rerouted toward the Red Sea, where Wojcik says Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port in September. Meanwhile, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and Moscow’s restrictions on fuel exports added pressure to diesel markets.
A separate weather and planting cycle affects European potatoes. After a 2025 glut, Polish growers harvested about 7 million tonnes, 18 percent more than the previous year, the report says. Growers in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany then planted 14 percent less. After five heatwaves and drought, their organization expects a harvest 25 percent smaller. That forecast is not a final harvest tally; it illustrates how markets already adjusting to one season’s surplus can face a different shortfall the next.
“Scarcity will cut yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.”
— UN Food and Agriculture Organization, as summarized in the report
The Scale of Coming Shortfalls
Several consequential claims remain forecasts rather than settled results. The report does not establish how long the strait will remain closed, whether another ceasefire proposal will be accepted, or whether the expected fertilizer scarcity will translate into specific crop losses. The FAO warning extends into 2027, but the report provides no final production data for those seasons.
Other numbers need careful reading. France’s station figure measures locations out of fuel on a particular date, and Wojcik says the official count misses some partial shortages because a station is recorded only when it runs out of every petrol grade or diesel. The report attributes most affected stations to TotalEnergies’ price cap and faster customer demand, but it does not quantify how much of the disruption came from pricing, logistics or other causes.
The piece also does not give a detailed estimate of Poland’s winter heating needs or the amount of gas available across Europe. Its account of a half-full Bavarian cavern does not establish the continent’s overall storage position. The expected timing and severity of any household or food-price effects therefore remain unclear.
Diplomacy, Storage and Harvest Data
The next major signal is whether negotiations produce a ceasefire and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s proposal was rejected, and the report says one account suggested the US president expects bombing to resume after the November midterm elections. That reported expectation is not confirmation that military operations will resume.
Readers will also need updated oil prices, tanker traffic and fuel availability to see whether the disruption is easing. In Europe, winter gas storage and import flows will indicate how exposed heating supplies are. For food, harvest results and fertilizer availability over the coming months will test forecasts of lower yields and tighter supplies. The report does not identify a confirmed date for a resolution or a final measure of the crisis’s economic effects.
Key Questions
What happened in the Strait of Hormuz?
Wojcik reports that Iran has kept the strait closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats, reducing tanker traffic by more than 90 percent. The account’s figures are current through Sept. 26, 2026.
Did the United States accept Iran’s ceasefire proposal?
No. The report says Iran delivered a written proposal on Sept. 22 for a ceasefire of up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade. Washington rejected it.
Are French fuel stations running out of fuel?
The report says 15 percent of French stations were out of petrol or diesel on Sept. 20, up from 11 percent two days earlier. France’s government ruled out a national shortage. The cited figure concerns station outages on that date, not a confirmed countrywide depletion.
Will the closure cause food shortages?
The report cites an FAO warning that fertilizer scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. The scale of any resulting shortages is not yet established.
What does the report say about Poland’s winter heating?
Wojcik says Poland depends on coal and imported gas and raises concern about winter energy exposure. The report does not quantify Poland’s heating shortfall or provide a complete assessment of European gas storage.
Source: hn
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